September 28, 2019 Blog Post

NASDAQ COMPOSITE 7939.63 -2.19%

Market Performance

The stock market fell between 0.43% (DJIA) to 2.19% (NASDAQ Composite) with the S&P 500 down 1.01% this past week for the second consecutive week of declining prices.  During the week the BDH Dashboard declined to a neutral “2” reading from a maximum “4” bullish reading as Indicator #2 and #5 had sell signals on 9/27 and 9/24, respectively.  Moreover, Indicator #8 is very near a Sell signal as well, which would turn the Dashboard to a “1” sell signal if that occurs next week.

Note on the above chart which shows the breach of the MACD (upper one) and the break below the 100-dma.  The NASDAQ is back in the territory of the rectangular box to the left in August through early September.  This is not a good sign going forward.

For the:                 YTD        

NASDAQ            19;.66%     

DJIA                    14.97%     

S&P 500              18.15%      

BDH Strategy        3.42%         

Dashboard Indicator Review – No Changes—Remains of +4

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator gave a SELL signal on Thursday September 27. 

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had a SELL signal on Thursday September 24.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest September 18, 2019 Bullish Percentage reading was 37.4% up 0.5 percentage points from the previous week.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD.  This indicator had a new a Sell signal on the index crossing its 5-ema, and is close to having a confirming MACD sell signal.  Refer to chart on the next page

Dark   Liquidity

The performance of the portfolio is independently tracked by dark-liquidity.com. The link is as follows:  www.darkliquidity.com/index.php/strategies

When you can go to the website check “strategies.” to see the results of 23 strategies that the site tracks.  Our strategy is 11th up from 13th last week. 

BDH Decision Page – BDH Dashboard ETFs  

Copy and paste the DecisionPage link into your browser:

https://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

On ETFscreen.com, the Decision Page indicated that 25 ETFs out of 44 have “pass” ratings compared to 31the prior week.  There were 19 “fails”.

Top- 5 ETFs

Our portfolio remains 100% invested with a gain of 0.90% since June 11, 2019.  This compares with a gain of 1.64% for the major averages. Over the past week the portfolio fell 0.75% compared to 1.21% for the averages, a better relative performance.  Refer to attached spreadsheet for the details of performance and rankings.  The spreadsheet is only provided to subscribers.           

CURRENT SITUATION

The market is at a tipping point and can go either way.  Keep in mind that October is typically a month when the market begins its rise into the end of the year, but that certainly was not the case last year as we all learned as the market took a dive that ended on Christmas Eve, before its vertical ascent began into 2019.  The 200-dma is at 7695 so a bad week could test that support level.  Make sure your stop LIMITs are in place in case the situation deteriorates.  We can always get back in after the dust settles. Retain the existing portfolio. We are still in a volatile market that is trying to reach new highs, so “we’ll see what happens”, as Trump is found of saying

Interim updates are sent to subscribers during the week, as needed.  Any subscriber who has recently sent in a payment and has not received this regular blog today should email me at lesmasonson@yahoo.com so I can check my records and correct any oversight.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them. This website was developed for educational purposes only and is not responsible for any actions you take with your investments.  If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are 100% responsible for your investment outcome.  Make sure to check the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile like now.  Just bookmark the charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active, so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS, if you use them, that meet your own risk profile.

Les

Leslie N. Masonson, MBA, CCM, is President of Cash Management Resources, a financial consulting firm that he founded in 1987. He is an ETF Strategist and currently actively trades ETFs on a daily basis Masonson’s 47-year working career has spanned financial advisory services, trading, investing, banking operations management, teaching, and cash/treasury management consulting. He was a Financial Advisor for six years offering investment management services to retail clients. Much earlier, he worked at three large banks for a total of 17 years as a Vice President at Citibank, an Assistant Vice President at Bank of America, and an Assistant Secretary at Irving Trust Company. He has written more than 140 articles – interviews with traders, software product and book reviews – for numerous financial publications including Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities (TASC), Active Trader, SFO and Futures magazine, as well as on Amazon. He has lectured on investing on several cruise lines including Crystal, Celebrity, and Norwegian. In November 2003, he spoke at the Intershow Online Investor’s Expo, on “Successfully Trading Stocks for a Living.” As of September 2016, he has been the ETF Columnist for TASC. Masonson has been researching and investing in the stock market for 60 years. He has invested in mutual funds, stocks, options, futures, ETFs, and commodities. Masonson has read more than 625 books on investing and trading, and he is proficient in technical analysis. He has used many investing and trading software programs over the years, including Telescan, OmniTrader, DTN, TradeStation, ULTRA, VectorVest, High Growth Stock Investing, TheWizard, and ETFReplay.com, as well as many brokerage charting programs including Fidelity Active Trader, Think or Swim, Interactive Brokers Trader Workstation, and Schwab’s StreetSmart Edge. He has been interviewed on business radio stations, as well as on cable TV on the Financial News Network and CNBC. The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Institutional Investor, Bottom Line/Business, Inc., Las Vegas Review-Journal, and Advertising Age have interviewed him. His latest book Buy DON’T Hold: Investing with ETFs Using Relative Strength to Increase Returns with Less Risk was published in May 2010. He has previously authored the following books: All About Market Timing: The Easy Way to Get Started, (McGraw-Hill, November 2003 and translated into Chinese in February 2010) as well as the Second Edition published in April 2011, Day Trading On The Edge: A Look-Before-You-Leap Guide to Extreme Investing, (AMACOM, 2000), Cash Cash Cash: The Three Principles of Business Survival and Success, (Harper Business, 1990), Corporate Cash Management: Techniques and Analysis, (Dow-Jones Irwin, 1985. Co-edited with Frank Fabozzi), and the Corporate Treasury Management Manual (A.S. Pratt & Sons, 1998. Editor and Contributor). In April 2011, his first ebook was published with the title Profiting from ETF Rotation Strategies in Turbulent Markets. Masonson received a BBA in Finance and Investments from The City College of New York and an MBA in Operations Research from Bernard M. Baruch College. His master’s thesis title was “Statistical Evaluation of the Relative Strength Concept of Common Stock Selection.”

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