September 14, 2019 Buy DON’T Hold Blog Post

NASDAQ COMPOSITE 8176.71 + 0.91%

Market Performance

The stock market has now risen three consecutive weeks and has decisively taken out the trading range box in purple to the upside (see chart below), and is trying to surmount the red resistance line that has been in place for months.  Right now, it is just below it in red circle.  Note the all-time at 8339.64 still has not been reached.  If an when it gets there that will be another test to see if it can be surpassed.

The three major market averages finally had its third positive week.  For the week the NASDAQ Composite gained 0.91%, the S&P 500 Index closed up 0.96%, and the DJIA advanced the most most up 1.58% after being down during prior six weeks of the last 9 weeks. 

For the:                 YTD       

NASDAQ            23.23%    

DJIA                    16.68%    

S&P 500              19.97%     

BDH Strategy        5.70%        

Other Market Segments

GLD experience a down week with a 1.35% decline, while GDX got clobbered down a whopping 6.46%. Oil prices took a hit as with USO falling 2.8%.


Shockingly, on the fixed income side, TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) finally got clocked down a huge 6.34% after a spectacular run so far this year.   This decline is most likely its largest weekly decline in many years. Similarly, IEF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF) fell 2.56% slightly below its high for the year.  This latest decline over the last 8 days in TLT has dropped its price below its 50-dma and may be the beginning of a further decline, and a peak in price on September 3 that won’t be achieved again very soon.  Investors who want to play the inverse ETF of TLT can buy TBF long.

Market Internals Deteriorate Again

The percentage of the NYSE stocks are above their respective 200-dma advancedto 65.80% from 45.53 % the week before and from 58.16% 6 weeks earlier. More importantly, the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas also advance to 67.99% from 52.3% a week earlier. Thus, the internal market has improved the in the past month or so.

Surprisingly, the number of new 52-week highs decreased to 283 from 412 the prior week, and from 603 six weeks earlier.  However, a shrinkage in new weekly highs is very surprising and unexpected as the market had an a 1% or so up week.  The  number of new lows shrank to 35 from 136 which was a big decline and welcomed. 

Dashboard Indicator Review – No Changes

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator gave a BUY signal on Thursday August 29.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had a BUY signal on Thursday August 29.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest September 11, 2019 Bullish Percentage reading was 33.1% up 4.5 percentage points from the previous week. This indicator issued another confirming BUY signal on August 20, it when from below 25% to above 25%.  There have been numerous confirming BUY signal along the way from its last major BUY signal on December 7, 2018 which was 17 days before the market low on December 24.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD.  This indicator had a new a buy signal on August 30 thereby cancelling its July 25 SELL signal.  Refer to second chart on the next page

Dark   Liquidity

The performance of the portfolio is independently tracked by dark-liquidity. The link is as follows:  www.dark-liquidity.com/index.php/strategies

When you can go to the website check “strategies.” to see the results of 23 strategies that the site tracks.  Our strategy is now 11th best up from 16th a few  weeks ago.

BDH Decision Page – BDH Dashboard ETFs 

Copy and paste the DecisionPage link into your browser:

https://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

On ETFscreen.com, the Decision Page indicated that 36 ETFs out of 44 have “pass” ratings compared to 20 the prior week. 

You can easily check the top performers for the past 5-days and one month by going to the “Additional Fund Stats” tab on the right side of the BDH Decision Page, and arraying the Rtn-5d and Rtn-3mo column, respectively heading from high to low.  If you check the performance over the past five days by hitting the down carat you will note that the three short ETFs –PSQ, SH, and DOG–are the lowest in the ranking and all with “fail” ratings.  Just last week these three ETFs had the highest ranking in the 5-day performance category.  That shows you how quickly the markets can change direction.

Chart of All BDH Signals

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals, paste it in your browser.  It may take a day or two to update as that is done by a subscriber.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

This two-paragraph section is only provided to subscribers via email

Top 5 ETFs – 100% Invested — Changes in Portfoio Emailed to Subscribers will be posted on this blog next week


GAME PLAN GOING FORWARD

Retain the portfolio and make the changes suggested (provided only to subscribers only).  Also place appropriate stop LIMITs that meet your risk tolerance criteria.  We are still in a volatile market that is trying to reach new highs.

Interim updates are sent to subscribers during the week, as needed.  Any subscriber who has recently sent in a payment and has not received this regular blog today should email me at lesmasonson@yahoo.com so I can check my records and correct any oversight.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them. This website was developed for educational purposes only and is not responsible for any actions you take with your investments.  If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are 100% responsible for your investment outcome.  Make sure to check the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile like now.  Just bookmark the charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active, so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS, if you use them, that meet your own risk profile.

Les

Leslie N. Masonson, MBA, CCM, is President of Cash Management Resources, a financial consulting firm that he founded in 1987. He is an ETF Strategist and currently actively trades ETFs on a daily basis Masonson’s 47-year working career has spanned financial advisory services, trading, investing, banking operations management, teaching, and cash/treasury management consulting. He was a Financial Advisor for six years offering investment management services to retail clients. Much earlier, he worked at three large banks for a total of 17 years as a Vice President at Citibank, an Assistant Vice President at Bank of America, and an Assistant Secretary at Irving Trust Company. He has written more than 140 articles – interviews with traders, software product and book reviews – for numerous financial publications including Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities (TASC), Active Trader, SFO and Futures magazine, as well as on Amazon. He has lectured on investing on several cruise lines including Crystal, Celebrity, and Norwegian. In November 2003, he spoke at the Intershow Online Investor’s Expo, on “Successfully Trading Stocks for a Living.” As of September 2016, he has been the ETF Columnist for TASC. Masonson has been researching and investing in the stock market for 60 years. He has invested in mutual funds, stocks, options, futures, ETFs, and commodities. Masonson has read more than 625 books on investing and trading, and he is proficient in technical analysis. He has used many investing and trading software programs over the years, including Telescan, OmniTrader, DTN, TradeStation, ULTRA, VectorVest, High Growth Stock Investing, TheWizard, and ETFReplay.com, as well as many brokerage charting programs including Fidelity Active Trader, Think or Swim, Interactive Brokers Trader Workstation, and Schwab’s StreetSmart Edge. He has been interviewed on business radio stations, as well as on cable TV on the Financial News Network and CNBC. The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Institutional Investor, Bottom Line/Business, Inc., Las Vegas Review-Journal, and Advertising Age have interviewed him. His latest book Buy DON’T Hold: Investing with ETFs Using Relative Strength to Increase Returns with Less Risk was published in May 2010. He has previously authored the following books: All About Market Timing: The Easy Way to Get Started, (McGraw-Hill, November 2003 and translated into Chinese in February 2010) as well as the Second Edition published in April 2011, Day Trading On The Edge: A Look-Before-You-Leap Guide to Extreme Investing, (AMACOM, 2000), Cash Cash Cash: The Three Principles of Business Survival and Success, (Harper Business, 1990), Corporate Cash Management: Techniques and Analysis, (Dow-Jones Irwin, 1985. Co-edited with Frank Fabozzi), and the Corporate Treasury Management Manual (A.S. Pratt & Sons, 1998. Editor and Contributor). In April 2011, his first ebook was published with the title Profiting from ETF Rotation Strategies in Turbulent Markets. Masonson received a BBA in Finance and Investments from The City College of New York and an MBA in Operations Research from Bernard M. Baruch College. His master’s thesis title was “Statistical Evaluation of the Relative Strength Concept of Common Stock Selection.”

Leave a Reply

Close Menu