October 19, 2019 BDH Blog Post

NASDAQ COMPOSITE 8089.54   +0.40 % Week

This will be a shortened blog, as is the case on occasion.

Market Performance

The market was little changed for the week with the NASDAQ rising for the third consecutive week. Last week, the NASDAQ was up 0.40%, the S&P 500 was up 0.54%, but the DJIA fell 0.17%.  All the major averages are above their 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-dmas which means we are in a short-term uptrend.

During the week Indicator #5 and #8, both had BUY signal on October 14 and 15, respectively, resulting in a maximum “4”’ BDH Dashboard BUY signal.

For the YTD:                       

NASDAQ 21.92%; DJIA 14.76%: S&P 500 19.12%; and BDH Strategy 3.67% 

An interim update was emailed on October 15 indicating that three ETFs should be purchased on the open on October 16, resulting in a 100% invested position.  There were:

IYT $185.95

XLY $121.62

XLB $57.35

Profit or Loss since purchase:

IYT +1.64%

XLY +0.43%

XLB -0.02%

XHB +9.89%

QQQ -0.75%   

This will be reflected in the Top5 ETF spreadsheet next week.  XHB, home builders, is leading the performance.  Note that XHB and IYT were the two best performers of all of our ETF universe in the past week.  Go to www.dark-liquidity.com to see their tabulation of our results, and go to www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold for the latest data on all 44 ETFs and the “additional fund stats” that provides column data over various periods that can be sorted high to low or vice versa.

Dashboard Indicator Review – Two Changes – Now at “4” BUY

  

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator gave a BUY signal on Monday October 14, reversing its October 7 SELL signal.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had a SELL signal on October 11, and a new BUY signal on October 14 as the MACD had a  positive crossover (see top chart right side at the bottom)

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest October 16, 2019 Bullish Percentage reading was 33.6% up from 20.3% the previous week.  This was one of the biggest weekly percentage increases in years, no doubt resulting from the big up day on Tuesday.  Since the indicator went from under 25% to above 25% this week, it issued a BUY signal.  However, this is a  confirming BUY signal as this indicator has been on a BUY signal since 12/07/2018.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD.  This indicator had a BUY signal on October 15 (see the chart below).

GOING FORWARD

With a fully invested position, we will wait to see the market’s direction going forward.  I am recommending the following stop limit orders for the new positions as follows:

XHB $ 42.99

XLY $119.00

XLB $56.84

You should determine your own orders based on your risk tolerance. Make sure your existing stop LIMITs are in place in case the situation deteriorates.  We are still in a volatile market that is trying to reach new highs.

Interim updates are sent to subscribers during the week, as needed.  Any subscriber who has recently sent in a payment and has not received this regular blog today should email me at lesmasonson@yahoo.com so I can check my records and correct any oversight.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them. This website was developed for educational purposes only and is not responsible for any actions you take with your investments.  If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are 100% responsible for your investment outcome.  Make sure to check the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile like now.  Just bookmark the charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active, so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS, if you use them, that meet your own risk profile.

Les

Leslie N. Masonson, MBA, CCM, is President of Cash Management Resources, a financial consulting firm that he founded in 1987. He is an ETF Strategist and currently actively trades ETFs on a daily basis Masonson’s 47-year working career has spanned financial advisory services, trading, investing, banking operations management, teaching, and cash/treasury management consulting. He was a Financial Advisor for six years offering investment management services to retail clients. Much earlier, he worked at three large banks for a total of 17 years as a Vice President at Citibank, an Assistant Vice President at Bank of America, and an Assistant Secretary at Irving Trust Company. He has written more than 140 articles – interviews with traders, software product and book reviews – for numerous financial publications including Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities (TASC), Active Trader, SFO and Futures magazine, as well as on Amazon. He has lectured on investing on several cruise lines including Crystal, Celebrity, and Norwegian. In November 2003, he spoke at the Intershow Online Investor’s Expo, on “Successfully Trading Stocks for a Living.” As of September 2016, he has been the ETF Columnist for TASC. Masonson has been researching and investing in the stock market for 60 years. He has invested in mutual funds, stocks, options, futures, ETFs, and commodities. Masonson has read more than 625 books on investing and trading, and he is proficient in technical analysis. He has used many investing and trading software programs over the years, including Telescan, OmniTrader, DTN, TradeStation, ULTRA, VectorVest, High Growth Stock Investing, TheWizard, and ETFReplay.com, as well as many brokerage charting programs including Fidelity Active Trader, Think or Swim, Interactive Brokers Trader Workstation, and Schwab’s StreetSmart Edge. He has been interviewed on business radio stations, as well as on cable TV on the Financial News Network and CNBC. The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Institutional Investor, Bottom Line/Business, Inc., Las Vegas Review-Journal, and Advertising Age have interviewed him. His latest book Buy DON’T Hold: Investing with ETFs Using Relative Strength to Increase Returns with Less Risk was published in May 2010. He has previously authored the following books: All About Market Timing: The Easy Way to Get Started, (McGraw-Hill, November 2003 and translated into Chinese in February 2010) as well as the Second Edition published in April 2011, Day Trading On The Edge: A Look-Before-You-Leap Guide to Extreme Investing, (AMACOM, 2000), Cash Cash Cash: The Three Principles of Business Survival and Success, (Harper Business, 1990), Corporate Cash Management: Techniques and Analysis, (Dow-Jones Irwin, 1985. Co-edited with Frank Fabozzi), and the Corporate Treasury Management Manual (A.S. Pratt & Sons, 1998. Editor and Contributor). In April 2011, his first ebook was published with the title Profiting from ETF Rotation Strategies in Turbulent Markets. Masonson received a BBA in Finance and Investments from The City College of New York and an MBA in Operations Research from Bernard M. Baruch College. His master’s thesis title was “Statistical Evaluation of the Relative Strength Concept of Common Stock Selection.”

Leave a Reply

Close Menu