Market Takes a Breather

MARKET REVIEW — NASDAQ Closes at 7938.69 + 2.71% for week

The markets had a good week and excellent quarter.  The BDH Dashboard is on a “3” BUY as of April 3 due to a positive MACD crossover on Indicator #5 (see accompanying chart).  An interim update was not sent out concerning this signal because of the higher than normal risk involved in investing at this juncture, as the market approaches its 2018 highs (see green horizontal line at 8133 on NASDAQ chart).

S&P 500 is 1.6% away from 9/21/2018 high of 2940.91.

NASDAQ Composite is 2.39% away from its October 1, 2018 high of 8,133.30.

The DJIA is 1.5% away from its October 3, 2018 high of 26,828.

The cover of Barron’s (April 8, 2018) had the following in big letters: “Is the Bull Market Unstoppable?”  Covers of financial magazines start having similar sounding titles at market peaks.  We will look for others the next few weeks and watch the markets at the same time to see the market can work its way higher in the following months.

Our portfolio remains 100% in cash.  For the week, the NASDAQ Composite was up a solid 2.71%, the S&P 500 gained 2.06%, and the DJIA gained 1.91%.

For the year-to-date  the DJIA is up  13.28%, the S&P is up 15.39%, and the NASDAQ is up 19.64%.  This compares to  BDH’s 2019 performance of 3.02%.

GLD fell 0.02% and GDX gained 0.04% for the week. Oil prices also gained with USO up a big 5.20%, while $BRENT gained  2.72%.  On the fixed income side, TLT was down 1.69% after rising  1.27% the before,  and IEF lost 0.68% after gaining 0.31% the prior week.

The  percentage of the NYSE stocks are above their 200-dma rose again to 63.17% from to 53.43% the previous week.  More importantly, the percentage of  NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas also rose to 76.16 from  63.24% the week before.  So the market has recovered nicely from the prior week’s decline

The number of NYSE stocks with 52-week new highs increased to 351 from 324 prior week which is a minimal increase in a market in a sustained 3-month 20% rally.  The  number of new 52-week lows fell to 47 from 104 the prior week.

Indicator Review – One Change — BDH “3” BUY Signal 

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator remains on its February 4 BUY signal.

Indicator #2A NASDAQ Composite Index and 200-dma.  This indicator issued a BUY signal on February 15.   This subset indicator will be used when the market falls below the 200-dma and then begins to turn up.  It will normally be pierced to the upside before the 100-dma and will provide a quicker entry signal.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator issued a slow MACD BUY signal (upper one) on April 3, 2018 while the faster MACD (lower one) had a BUY signal on April 1.  Please refer to upper chart to review these signals.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest April 3, 2019 Bullish Percentage reading was 35.0% up 1.8percentage points the  prior week.  This reading is always taken by AAII on Wednesday and reported on Thursday.   This indicator remains on its BUY signal.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD.  Note that the Index has crossed the 5-dma near the top right of the nearby, but that the slow MACD below has not yet crossed to the upside.  Any positive action next week would result in an MACD crossover and a BUY signal on this indicator.

Dark Liquidity

The link is www.dark-liquidity.com/index.php/strategies

Or you can go to www.dark-liquidity.com first and then hit strategies.  Our strategy is 17th best out of 23.  The top 19 ETFs all have ” pass” ratings.

BDH Decision Page – BDH Dashboard ETFs 

Copy and paste the DecisionPage link into your browser:

https://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

On ETFscreen.com, the Decision Page indicated that 37 ETFs had “pass” ratings compared to  28 the prior week.  The top five over the past week were: SMH,ARKK, XHB,XLB, and XBI.

Chart of All BDH Signals

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Conclusion  —  Market Approaching All-Time Highs

The market had another good week and is nearing its all-time highs of Sept/Oct 2018.  The market could reach and exceed those highs or have trouble and either remain in a trading range or decline.  We will wait to see what develops.  In the meantime we are still 100% in cash.

2019 Subscription Update

Beginning on April 1, all individuals who renewed their subscription for $25 will be receiving the Interim intra-week updates, as market conditions dictate.  I also welcome all other visitors to  subscribe to get the full value. To subscribe go to the following link for instructions:  BDH Interim Update Service 2019

Interim updates are sent to subscribers during the week, as needed.   No interim updates were sent this past week.  Any subscriber who has recently sent in a payment and has not received my interim today before 12 noon should email me at lesmasonson@yahoo.com so I can check my records and correct any oversight.

An interim update with recommendations on how to play this market now will be sent to subscribers shortly after this blog is posted.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them. This website was developed for educational purposes only and is not responsible for any actions you take with your investments.  If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are 100% responsible for your investment outcome.  Make sure to check the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile like now.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active, so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Les

Leslie N. Masonson, MBA, CCM, is President of Cash Management Resources, a financial consulting firm that he founded in 1987. He is an ETF Strategist and currently actively trades ETFs on a daily basis Masonson’s 47-year working career has spanned financial advisory services, trading, investing, banking operations management, teaching, and cash/treasury management consulting. He was a Financial Advisor for six years offering investment management services to retail clients. Much earlier, he worked at three large banks for a total of 17 years as a Vice President at Citibank, an Assistant Vice President at Bank of America, and an Assistant Secretary at Irving Trust Company. He has written more than 140 articles – interviews with traders, software product and book reviews – for numerous financial publications including Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities (TASC), Active Trader, SFO and Futures magazine, as well as on Amazon. He has lectured on investing on several cruise lines including Crystal, Celebrity, and Norwegian. In November 2003, he spoke at the Intershow Online Investor’s Expo, on “Successfully Trading Stocks for a Living.” As of September 2016, he has been the ETF Columnist for TASC. Masonson has been researching and investing in the stock market for 60 years. He has invested in mutual funds, stocks, options, futures, ETFs, and commodities. Masonson has read more than 625 books on investing and trading, and he is proficient in technical analysis. He has used many investing and trading software programs over the years, including Telescan, OmniTrader, DTN, TradeStation, ULTRA, VectorVest, High Growth Stock Investing, TheWizard, and ETFReplay.com, as well as many brokerage charting programs including Fidelity Active Trader, Think or Swim, Interactive Brokers Trader Workstation, and Schwab’s StreetSmart Edge. He has been interviewed on business radio stations, as well as on cable TV on the Financial News Network and CNBC. The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Institutional Investor, Bottom Line/Business, Inc., Las Vegas Review-Journal, and Advertising Age have interviewed him. His latest book Buy DON’T Hold: Investing with ETFs Using Relative Strength to Increase Returns with Less Risk was published in May 2010. He has previously authored the following books: All About Market Timing: The Easy Way to Get Started, (McGraw-Hill, November 2003 and translated into Chinese in February 2010) as well as the Second Edition published in April 2011, Day Trading On The Edge: A Look-Before-You-Leap Guide to Extreme Investing, (AMACOM, 2000), Cash Cash Cash: The Three Principles of Business Survival and Success, (Harper Business, 1990), Corporate Cash Management: Techniques and Analysis, (Dow-Jones Irwin, 1985. Co-edited with Frank Fabozzi), and the Corporate Treasury Management Manual (A.S. Pratt & Sons, 1998. Editor and Contributor). In April 2011, his first ebook was published with the title Profiting from ETF Rotation Strategies in Turbulent Markets. Masonson received a BBA in Finance and Investments from The City College of New York and an MBA in Operations Research from Bernard M. Baruch College. His master’s thesis title was “Statistical Evaluation of the Relative Strength Concept of Common Stock Selection.”

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