Market Struggles to Reach 2018 Highs

Important Note:  This is my first post on the new hosting site.  I am working on the other elements of this site, but at least the blog is up and running. I realize that the charts cannot be enlarged like before so I’m trying to get that fixed by next week.

MARKET REVIEW — NASDAQ Closes at 7998.06 + 0.17% for week  

The markets had a quiet holiday week. The DJIA gained 0.56%, the S&P 500 lost 0.08%, and the NASDAQ Composite blipped up 0.17%.  On Friday Indicator #5 experiened a SELL signal resulting in a Dashboard reading of “3””down a notch from recent “4” reading. The NASDAQ is now only  35 points away from its 2018 intra-day yearly high.  However, as you can see the MACD had a negative crossover on Friday, so the next  week will show whether or not the previous high can be decisievely taken out.

Our portfolio remains 100% in cash. For the year-to-date  the DJIA is up  13.86%, the S&P is up 15.88%, and the NASDAQ is up 20.54%.  This compares to  BDH’s 2019 performance of 3.02%.

GLD fell 1.2% and GDX cratered 3.92% for the week. Oil prices also gained with USO up a tiny 0.15%, while $BRENT gained  0.59%.  On the fixed income side, TLT was up 0.15%,  and IEF rose 0.05%..

The  percentage of the NYSE stocks are above their 200-dma rose slightly to 63.32% from to 63.17% the previous week.  More importantly, the percentage of  NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas also fell to 66.53 from  76.16% the week before, a larger drop than expected in a mixed market.

Indicator Review –One Change BDH “3” BUY

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator remains on its February 4 BUY signal.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator issued a slow MACD SELL signal (upper one) on April 18, 2018 while the faster MACD (lower one) had a SELL signal a week earlier.  Please refer to upper chart to review these signals.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest April 16, 2019 Bullish Percentage reading was 37.6% down 2.7 percentage points the  prior week.  This reading is always taken by AAII on Wednesday and reported on Thursday.   This indicator remains on its BUY signal.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD.  Note the upper Index has crossed below its 5 day –ema.  And the MACD is close to turning down as well. Currently, it remains on its BUY signal, but it may give a Sell signal this week if the market falls.

 Dark Liquidity

The link is www.dark-liquidity.com/index.php/strategies

Or you can go to www.dark-liquidity.com first and then hit strategies.  Our strategy is 17th best out of 23.  BDH Decision Page – BDH Dashboard ETFs 

Copy and paste the DecisionPage link into your browser:

https://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

On ETFscreen.com, the Decision Page indicated that 32 ETFs out of 44 have ” pass” ratings.

 Chart of All BDH Signals

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Conclusion  —  Market  Still Approaching All-Time Highs

The market had slow week and is still nearing its all-time highs of Sept/Oct 2018.  The market could reach and exceed those highs or have trouble or either remain in a trading range or decline.  We will wait to see what develops.  In the meantime we are still 100% in cash.

2019 Subscription Update

Beginning on April 1, all individuals who renewed their subscription for $25 will be receiving the Interim intra-week updates, as market conditions dictate.  I also welcome all other visitors to  subscribe to get the full value. To subscribe go to the following link for instructions:  BDH Interim Update Service 2019

Interim updates are sent to subscribers during the week, as needed.   No interim updates were sent this past week.  Any subscriber who has recently sent in a payment and has not received my interim today before 12 noon should email me at lesmasonson@yahoo.com so I can check my records and correct any oversight.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them. This website was developed for educational purposes only and is not responsible for any actions you take with your investments.  If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are 100% responsible for your investment outcome.  Make sure to check the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile like now.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active, so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

 

Les

Leslie N. Masonson, MBA, CCM, is President of Cash Management Resources, a financial consulting firm that he founded in 1987. He is an ETF Strategist and currently actively trades ETFs on a daily basis Masonson’s 47-year working career has spanned financial advisory services, trading, investing, banking operations management, teaching, and cash/treasury management consulting. He was a Financial Advisor for six years offering investment management services to retail clients. Much earlier, he worked at three large banks for a total of 17 years as a Vice President at Citibank, an Assistant Vice President at Bank of America, and an Assistant Secretary at Irving Trust Company. He has written more than 140 articles – interviews with traders, software product and book reviews – for numerous financial publications including Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities (TASC), Active Trader, SFO and Futures magazine, as well as on Amazon. He has lectured on investing on several cruise lines including Crystal, Celebrity, and Norwegian. In November 2003, he spoke at the Intershow Online Investor’s Expo, on “Successfully Trading Stocks for a Living.” As of September 2016, he has been the ETF Columnist for TASC. Masonson has been researching and investing in the stock market for 60 years. He has invested in mutual funds, stocks, options, futures, ETFs, and commodities. Masonson has read more than 625 books on investing and trading, and he is proficient in technical analysis. He has used many investing and trading software programs over the years, including Telescan, OmniTrader, DTN, TradeStation, ULTRA, VectorVest, High Growth Stock Investing, TheWizard, and ETFReplay.com, as well as many brokerage charting programs including Fidelity Active Trader, Think or Swim, Interactive Brokers Trader Workstation, and Schwab’s StreetSmart Edge. He has been interviewed on business radio stations, as well as on cable TV on the Financial News Network and CNBC. The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Institutional Investor, Bottom Line/Business, Inc., Las Vegas Review-Journal, and Advertising Age have interviewed him. His latest book Buy DON’T Hold: Investing with ETFs Using Relative Strength to Increase Returns with Less Risk was published in May 2010. He has previously authored the following books: All About Market Timing: The Easy Way to Get Started, (McGraw-Hill, November 2003 and translated into Chinese in February 2010) as well as the Second Edition published in April 2011, Day Trading On The Edge: A Look-Before-You-Leap Guide to Extreme Investing, (AMACOM, 2000), Cash Cash Cash: The Three Principles of Business Survival and Success, (Harper Business, 1990), Corporate Cash Management: Techniques and Analysis, (Dow-Jones Irwin, 1985. Co-edited with Frank Fabozzi), and the Corporate Treasury Management Manual (A.S. Pratt & Sons, 1998. Editor and Contributor). In April 2011, his first ebook was published with the title Profiting from ETF Rotation Strategies in Turbulent Markets. Masonson received a BBA in Finance and Investments from The City College of New York and an MBA in Operations Research from Bernard M. Baruch College. His master’s thesis title was “Statistical Evaluation of the Relative Strength Concept of Common Stock Selection.”

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