NASDAQ Closes at 8006.24 -0.32% for week
Market Performance
The markets took a breather this week after two back-to-bac weeks of solid performance with the NASDAQ up 6.89% during those two weeks. This index is now 170 points away from its April 29, 2019 high of 8176.
Neither the S&P 500 Index or the DJIA was able to make new highs this past week. For the week, the DJIA declined 0.45%, the S&P 500 lost 0.29%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.32%.
For the: YTD
NASDAQ 20.73%
DJIA 14.09%
S&P 500 17.41%
BDH Strategy 4.00%
Other Market Segments
GLD was up a slight 0.92% after gaining a huge 6.94% the prior two weeks. Likewise, GDX had another positive week up 1.39% after a monster gain of 19.04% during the prior three weeks.
Finally, oil prices rose again with USO gaining 0.58%. $Brent crude fell 0.75% for the week.
Amazingly, on the fixed income side, TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) was up a 1.05% hitting a new all-time high. Similarly, IEF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF) gained 0.44% for the week blasting to another all-time high. It is striking that fixed up and the stock market are moving in the same direction and both making new highs simultaneously. Even more striking is the positive move in gold.
Market Internals Improve, But Are Still Not a Maximum Levels
The percentage of the NYSE stocks are above their 200-dma advanced to 64.11% compared to 61.03% the prior week. More importantly, the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas also advanced forcefully to 66.36% from 59.43% the prior week. Although these increases are good news, the numbers are nowhere close to the 75% to 90% level when markets are making new highs. This means that there are many stocks not participating in this rally and that sector rotation is occurring over time. For example, over the past six months, XLK, XHB, XLY, and XLI have each gained over 20%, while the other seven sectors have not done as well, and XLE has lost 2.03%
The number of new 52-week NYSE new highs declined to 368 this past week from 502 the prior week and the new 52-weeklows stayed around 135. The number of new highs is still a far cry from the 800 to 1000 new highs that are normally expected at markets making all-time highs.
Dashboard Indicator Review – No Changes
Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator finally broke above its 100-dma on Friday after closing below it on May 29, 2019. It is now on a new BUY signal (see chart immediately above and notice the red line in the green circle).
Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator issued a slow MACD SELL signal (upper one) on May 1, 2019 while the faster MACD (lower one) had a SELL signal a day earlier. Please refer to upper chart to review these signals.
Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest June 26, 2019 Bullish Percentage reading was 29.6% up 0.1 from 29.5% 7 days earlier. This indicator remains on its BUY signal of November 29, 2018, and has recently issued another buy signal confirmation in the past month when it fell below 25%, and then rose above it.
Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator finally had a BUY signal on June 14 thereby cancelling its April 23 SELL signal, See chart below.
Dark Liquidity
The link is as follows:
www.dark-liquidity.com/index.php/strategies
You can go to www.dark-liquidity.com first and then hit strategies. Our strategy is 14th best out of 23.
BDH Decision Page – BDH Dashboard ETFs
Copy and paste the DecisionPage link into your browser:
https://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php
On ETFscreen.com, the Decision Page indicated that 39 ETFs out of 44 have “pass” ratings compared to 38 the prior week. Note that first 39 ETFs all have pass ratings. The 5 “fails” are DBA, TBF, and the inverse ETFs DOG, SH and PSQ
You can easily check the top performers for the past 5-days and one month by going to the “Additional Fund Stats” tab on the right side of the BDH Decision Page, and arraying the Rtn-5d and Rtn-3mo column, respectively heading from high to low.
Chart of All BDH Signals
Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals, paste it in your browser. It may take a day or two to update as that is done by a subscriber.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893
Top 5 ETFs – 100% Invested
As you will note on the Top 5 ETF Tracking table
provided in the attachment (only provided to subscribers), the current ETF performance
is provided since their purchase on the June 11 open. They have performed better this week compared
to prior weeks. Last week I said; “Normally, any ETF falling
below 25 is sold, but given TLT’s solid performance for the year-to-date, and
the market’s big rise over the past few weeks, I feel it is prudent to hold
this ETF for at least a few more weeks in case the market declines again.” TLT
did rise 1.05% last week, but it is still ranked 30th, and we will
keep it in the portfolio
Game Plan Going Forward
The NASDAQ’s next resistance level is 170 points away. We’ll see if that can be taken out successfully this week, as it did not occur this past week. In the interim, if invested makers sure stop LIMITs are in place to protect principal. An interim update to subscribers will be provided if there are any changes in our positions during the week.
Interim updates are sent to subscribers during the week, as needed. Any subscriber who has recently sent in a payment and has not received this regular blog today should email me at lesmasonson@yahoo.com so I can check my records and correct any oversight.
Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them. This website was developed for educational purposes only and is not responsible for any actions you take with your investments. If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are 100% responsible for your investment outcome. Make sure to check the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile like now. Just bookmark the charts above and look for any signal changes. I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active, so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your own risk profile.
