June 23, 2019: Market Advances to New Highs

 

NASDAQ
Closes at 8031.71 +235 pts or 3.01% for week

Market Performance

The markets had a second back-to-back of solid performance with the NASDAQ up 3.01% after a 3.88% gain
the prior week. This index is now only 88 points away from its April 29, 2019 high of 8176.

The S&P 500 Index hit an intra-day and all-time high of 2964 on Friday, surpassing its 2954 level
on May 1, but it closed the day at 2950, below both levels.  On Thursday, the DJIA hit an all-time high
26798 intra-day and closed the week at 26719 taking out the prior April 23, 2019 high.

For the week, the DJIA advanced 2.41%, the S&P 500 gained at 2.20%, and the NASDAQ Composite climbed 3.01%. 

For the:                 YTD       

NASDAQ            21.05%     

DJIA                    14.54%    

S&P 500              17.70%     

BDH Strategy        3.40%        

Indicator #8  generated a BUY signal SELL signal on Friday
June 14 resulting in a “4” BDH Dashboard maximum BUY signal. 

Other Market Segments

GLD was up again a huge 4.28% after a 2.64% jump the prior week and just broke out to new highs exceeding the price of July 5, 2016.

Likewise, GDX broke out as well, but with another monster gain of 8.06% following the prior week gain 6.02%, and a 4.96% gain the week before that, a truly impressive run.

Finally, oil prices staged a huge rally with USO gaining 9.41% reversing its recent multi-weeks decline. $Brent crude also gained up a solid 5.41% for the week, after falling hard in prior weeks.

Not unexpectedly, on the fixed income side, TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) was up a minimal 0.02%, after a big run this year. IEF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF) gained 0.20% for the week. 

Market Internals
Improve, But Are Still Not a Maximum Levels

The percentage of the NYSE stocks are above their 200-dma advanced to 61.03% compared to 55.332% the prior week. More importantly, the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas also advanced forcefully to 59.43% from 48.45% the prior week.  Although these increases are good news, the numbers are nowhere close to the 75% to 90%
level when markets are making new highs.  This means that there are many stocks not participating in this rally
and that sector rotation is occurring over time.  For example, over the past six months, XLK, XHB, XLY, and XLI have each gained over 20%, while the other seven sectors have not done as well, and XLE   has lost 2.03%

The number of new 52-week NYSE new highs expanded to 502 this past week from 417 the prior week and the new 52-weeklows decreased to 134 from 144 the prior week.  Thus, the number of new highs is expanding as should be expected in a market finally rebounding from a weak six-week period.  However, it is a far cry from the 800 to 1000 new highs that are normally expected at markets making all-time highs.

DASHBOARD INDICATOR REVIEW –One Positive Change

Indicator
#2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma
.
This indicator finally broke above its 100-dma on
Friday after closing below it on May 29, 2019. It is now on a new BUY signal
(see chart immediately above and notice the red line in the green circle)

Indicator
#5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.
 
This indicator issued a slow MACD SELL signal (upper
one) 
on May 1, 2019 while the faster MACD
(lower one) had a SELL signal a day earlier.  Please refer to upper chart
to review these signals.

Indicator
#6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage
. The latest June 5, 2019 Bullish
Percentage reading was 22.5% down from 24.8% 7 days earlier.  This
indicator remains on its BUY signal of November 29, 2018, but it is still below the critical 25% level for the third
consecutive week Any move higher from this level will signal another buy signal
confirmation, as is has been on a BUY signal.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD.  This indicator finally had a BUY signal on June 14 thereby cancelling its April 23 SELL signal, See chart below.

Current Dashboard

Version-2 Dashboard June 23, 2019

Dark Liquidity

The link is as follows:

www.dark-liquidity.com/index.php/strategies

You can go to www.dark-liquidity.com first and then hit strategies.  Our strategy is 15th
best out of 23.

BDH Decision Page-  BDJ Dashboard ETFs

Copy and paste into Browser:

https://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

On ETFscreen.com, the Decision Page indicated that 38 ETFs out of
44 have “pass” ratings compared to 29 two weeks prior.  This is a huge turnaround in two weeks. Note
that first 34 ETFs all have pass ratings.

You can easily check the
top performers for the past 5-days and one month by going to the “Additional
Fund Stats” tab on the right side of the BDH Decision Page, and arraying the
Rtn-5d and Rtn-3mo column, respectively heading from high to low.

 Chart of All BDH Signals

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals, paste it in your browser.  It may take a day or two to update as that is
done by a subscriber.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Top 5 ETFs – 100% Invested


As you will note on the Top 5 ETF Tracking table , the current ETF performance is provided since their purchase on the June 11 open.  So far, they haven’t performed well compared to the major averages, and TLT has now dropped to rank 33.  Normally, any ETF falling below 25 is sold, but given TLT’s solid performance for the year-to-date, and the market’s big rise over the past few weeks, I feel it is prudent to hold this ETF for at least a few more weeks in case the market declines again.  Moreover, if the market does continue to rise, I will recommend changes in case our positions do not at least equal the average market’s (e.g., major indexes) performance.

Top 5 ETFs June 21,, 2019

 

Game
Plan Going Forward

The NASDAQ’s next
resistance level is 88 points away. 
We’ll see if that can be taken out successfully this week.  In the interim, if invested makers sure stop
LIMITs are in place to protect principal. 
An interim update to subscribers will be provided if there are any
changes in our positions during the week.

Interim updates are sent to subscribers during the week, as
needed.     Any subscriber who has recently sent in a payment
and has not received this regular blog today should email
me at lesmasonson@yahoo.com so I can check my records and correct any
oversight.

Remember that you are
responsible for your investments and how you manage them. This website was developed
for educational purposes only and is not responsible for any actions you take
with your investments.  If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you
are 100% responsible for your investment outcome.  Make sure to check the
BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile like now. 
Just bookmark the charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not
available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is
important to be pro-active, so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on
and place your stop LIMITS that meet your own risk profile. 

Les

Leslie N. Masonson, MBA, CCM, is President of Cash Management Resources, a financial consulting firm that he founded in 1987. He is an ETF Strategist and currently actively trades ETFs on a daily basis Masonson’s 47-year working career has spanned financial advisory services, trading, investing, banking operations management, teaching, and cash/treasury management consulting. He was a Financial Advisor for six years offering investment management services to retail clients. Much earlier, he worked at three large banks for a total of 17 years as a Vice President at Citibank, an Assistant Vice President at Bank of America, and an Assistant Secretary at Irving Trust Company. He has written more than 140 articles – interviews with traders, software product and book reviews – for numerous financial publications including Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities (TASC), Active Trader, SFO and Futures magazine, as well as on Amazon. He has lectured on investing on several cruise lines including Crystal, Celebrity, and Norwegian. In November 2003, he spoke at the Intershow Online Investor’s Expo, on “Successfully Trading Stocks for a Living.” As of September 2016, he has been the ETF Columnist for TASC. Masonson has been researching and investing in the stock market for 60 years. He has invested in mutual funds, stocks, options, futures, ETFs, and commodities. Masonson has read more than 625 books on investing and trading, and he is proficient in technical analysis. He has used many investing and trading software programs over the years, including Telescan, OmniTrader, DTN, TradeStation, ULTRA, VectorVest, High Growth Stock Investing, TheWizard, and ETFReplay.com, as well as many brokerage charting programs including Fidelity Active Trader, Think or Swim, Interactive Brokers Trader Workstation, and Schwab’s StreetSmart Edge. He has been interviewed on business radio stations, as well as on cable TV on the Financial News Network and CNBC. The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Institutional Investor, Bottom Line/Business, Inc., Las Vegas Review-Journal, and Advertising Age have interviewed him. His latest book Buy DON’T Hold: Investing with ETFs Using Relative Strength to Increase Returns with Less Risk was published in May 2010. He has previously authored the following books: All About Market Timing: The Easy Way to Get Started, (McGraw-Hill, November 2003 and translated into Chinese in February 2010) as well as the Second Edition published in April 2011, Day Trading On The Edge: A Look-Before-You-Leap Guide to Extreme Investing, (AMACOM, 2000), Cash Cash Cash: The Three Principles of Business Survival and Success, (Harper Business, 1990), Corporate Cash Management: Techniques and Analysis, (Dow-Jones Irwin, 1985. Co-edited with Frank Fabozzi), and the Corporate Treasury Management Manual (A.S. Pratt & Sons, 1998. Editor and Contributor). In April 2011, his first ebook was published with the title Profiting from ETF Rotation Strategies in Turbulent Markets. Masonson received a BBA in Finance and Investments from The City College of New York and an MBA in Operations Research from Bernard M. Baruch College. His master’s thesis title was “Statistical Evaluation of the Relative Strength Concept of Common Stock Selection.”

Leave a Reply

Close Menu