July 21, 2019: Market Takes a Breather

NASDAQ
Closes at 8146.49 -1.18 % for week

BDH Portfolio Changes

On July 17, 2019, TLT and XLB were sold at the open
because of poor performance.  They were
replaced by XLP and QQQ.  This was
previously communicated to all subscribers in last Sunday’s blog email.  This change is reflected in the Top ETFs
table in an attachment.  The current
portfolio consists of XLP, QQQ, PDP, XHB and XLY.

Market Performance

The three major market
averages gave up some of their recent gains this past week.

 he NASDAQ Composite fell 1.18%, the S&P 500 Index closed down 1.23% below 3000 again, and the DJIA declined 0.65% closing at 27154.20

For the:                 YTD       

NASDAQ            22.78%     

DJIA                    16.40%    

S&P 500              18.74%     

BDH Strategy       4.37%        

Other Market Segments

GLD was up 0.70%, rising 7 of the past 9 weeks. Likewise, GDX had another positive week up 6.75%
after a monster gain of over 24%% during the prior month.  Finally, oil prices got clobbered this week with
USO losing 6.797%, and $Brent down 6.37% for the week.

Not unexpectedly, on the fixed income side, TLT (iShares 20+ Year
Treasury Bond ETF) advanced 1.13% recovering some of the losses for the two
weeks prior.  Similarly, IEF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF) gained 0.57 % to offset
the prior week’s loss of 0.49%.

Market Internals
Improve

The percentage of the NYSE stocks are above their 200-dma decline to 64.06% compared 66.66% last week. More importantly, the percentage of NYSE
stocks above their 50-dmas also declined to 66.41% from
74.16% the prior week.

Nevertheless, there are still many stocks not participating in
this rally resulting from sector rotation. 
For example, over the past six months, XHB, XLY, XLP, XLF, and XLI have
each gained over 15%, while the other sectors have not done as well with, XLE gaining
only 5.06%, and XLV adding 6.47%.

The number of new 52-week NYSE new highs increased slightly to 468 from 449 the prior week indicating that hundreds of stocks are not fully participating in this broad market move higher. The number of new highs is still a far cry from the 800 to 1000 new highs that are normally expected at markets making all-time highs.

Dashboard Indicator Review One
Change

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and
100-dma
.
This indicator finally broke above its 100-dma on July 17. See the above chart
right side.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator
issued a slow MACD SELL signal (upper oneon June 7, 2019 while
the faster MACD (lower one) also had a SELL signal 4 days
earlier.  Please refer to upper chart to review these signals. Note that the NASDAQ price has fallen below the
horizontal support line at 8176, not a good sign.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest July 17, 2019 Bullish Percentage reading was 35.9% up 2.3 percentage points  from the previous week. This indicator remains on its BUY signal of November 29, 2018.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD.  This indicator finally had a BUY signal on June 14 thereby cancelling its April 23 SELL signal

Th current Dashboard is here:

         Version 2 Dashboard Weekly Results             
               
      07/19/19        
  Notes:            
  * Reading = Number of Positive Indicators:            
    0 or 1 means Sell          
    2 means None          
    3 or 4 means Buy          
               
               
               Signal             Indicator Number      
  Date Reading* Action 2 5 6 8
  7/17/2019 3 Buy 1 -1 1 1
  6/14/2019 4 Buy 1 1 1 1
  6/7/2019 3 Buy 1 1 1 -1
  5/29/2019 1 Sell -1 -1 1 -1
  5/1/2019 2 None 1 -1 1 -1
  4/23/2019 3 Buy 1 1 1 -1
  4/18/2019 3 Buy 1 -1 1 1
  4/10/2019 4 Buy 1 1 1 1
  4/3/2019 3 Buy 1 1 1 -1
  3/25/2019 2 None 1 -1 1 -1
  3/19/2019 3 Buy 1 1 1 -1
  3/6/2019 2 None 1 -1 1 -1
  2/28/2019 3 Buy 1 -1 1 1
  2/4/2019 4 Buy 1 1 1 1
  1/3/2019 3 Buy -1 1 1 1

 

Dark Liquidity

The link is as follows:

www.dark-liquidity.com/index.php/strategies

You can go to
www.dark-liquidity.com first and then hit strategies.  Our strategy is 14th
best out of 23.

BDH
Decision Page – BDH Dashboard ETFs 

Copy and paste the
DecisionPage link into your browser:

https://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

On ETFscreen.com, the Decision Page indicated that 29 ETFs out of
44 have “pass” ratings compared to 38 the prior week. There were 15
“fails” including  TLT, XLB,
and the inverse ETFs DOG, SH and PSQ.

You can easily check the
top performers for the past 5-days and one month by going to the “Additional
Fund Stats” tab on the right side of the BDH Decision Page, and arraying the
Rtn-5d and Rtn-3mo column, respectively heading from high to low.  If you check the performance over the past five days by hitting
the down carat you will note that the three short ETFs are high in the
ranking.  That is too be expected in a
market down week.

 Chart of All BDH Signals

Here is a chart showing
all Dashboard buy and sell signals, paste it in your browser.  It may take a day or two to update as that is
done by a subscriber.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Top
5 ETFs – 100% Invested


As you will note on the Top 5 ETF Tracking table
provided in the attachment (only provided to subscribers), the current ETF
performance is provided since their purchase on the June 11 open. 

For the new ETFs, the
closing price for stop LIMITs for XLB is $59.23 and for QQQ is $190.18.  Of course, you can use any stops that better
fit your risk tolerance.

Game
Plan Going Forward

The market is near all-time highs and the intermediate and
long-term trend is positive.  The
short-term trend is a bit choppy. That does not mean that the market will
continue higher unabated.  So, what do we
do here? We watch the portfolio and wait. 
Make sure stops are in place to protect principal. 

    Interim updates are sent to subscribers during
the week, as needed.     Any subscriber who has recently sent in
a payment and has not received this regular blog
today should email me at lesmasonson@yahoo.com so I can check my records and
correct any oversight.

Remember that you are
responsible for your investments and how you manage them. This website was
developed for educational purposes only and is not responsible for any actions
you take with your investments.  If you decide to follow the BDH strategy,
then you are 100% responsible for your investment outcome.  Make sure to
check the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile like
now.  Just bookmark the charts above and look for any signal
changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard
signal changes. It is important to be pro-active, so as not to miss any
Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your own
risk profile.

Dark Liquidity

The link is as follows:

www.dark-liquidity.com/index.php/strategies

You can go to
www.dark-liquidity.com first and then hit strategies.  Our strategy is 14th
best out of 23.

BDH
Decision Page – BDH Dashboard ETFs 

Copy and paste the
DecisionPage link into your browser:

https://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

On ETFscreen.com, the Decision Page indicated that 29 ETFs out of
44 have “pass” ratings compared to 38 the prior week. There were 15
“fails” including  TLT, XLB,
and the inverse ETFs DOG, SH and PSQ.

You can easily check the
top performers for the past 5-days and one month by going to the “Additional
Fund Stats” tab on the right side of the BDH Decision Page, and arraying the
Rtn-5d and Rtn-3mo column, respectively heading from high to low.  If you check the performance over the past five days by hitting
the down carat you will note that the three short ETFs are high in the
ranking.  That is too be expected in a
market down week.

 Chart of All BDH Signals

Here is a chart showing
all Dashboard buy and sell signals, paste it in your browser.  It may take a day or two to update as that is
done by a subscriber.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Top
5 ETFs – 100% Invested


As you will note on the Top 5 ETF Tracking table
provided in the attachment (only provided to subscribers), the current ETF
performance is provided since their purchase on the June 11 open. 

For the new ETFs, the
closing price for stop LIMITs for XLB is $59.23 and for QQQ is $190.18.  Of course, you can use any stops that better
fit your risk tolerance.

Game
Plan Going Forward

The market is near all-time highs and the intermediate and
long-term trend is positive.  The
short-term trend is a bit choppy. That does not mean that the market will
continue higher unabated.  So, what do we
do here? We watch the portfolio and wait. 
Make sure stops are in place to protect principal. 

    Interim updates are sent to subscribers during
the week, as needed.     Any subscriber who has recently sent in
a payment and has not received this regular blog
today should email me at lesmasonson@yahoo.com so I can check my records and
correct any oversight.

Remember that you are
responsible for your investments and how you manage them. This website was
developed for educational purposes only and is not responsible for any actions
you take with your investments.  If you decide to follow the BDH strategy,
then you are 100% responsible for your investment outcome.  Make sure to
check the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile like
now.  Just bookmark the charts above and look for any signal
changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard
signal changes. It is important to be pro-active, so as not to miss any
Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your own
risk profile.

Les

Leslie N. Masonson, MBA, CCM, is President of Cash Management Resources, a financial consulting firm that he founded in 1987. He is an ETF Strategist and currently actively trades ETFs on a daily basis Masonson’s 47-year working career has spanned financial advisory services, trading, investing, banking operations management, teaching, and cash/treasury management consulting. He was a Financial Advisor for six years offering investment management services to retail clients. Much earlier, he worked at three large banks for a total of 17 years as a Vice President at Citibank, an Assistant Vice President at Bank of America, and an Assistant Secretary at Irving Trust Company. He has written more than 140 articles – interviews with traders, software product and book reviews – for numerous financial publications including Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities (TASC), Active Trader, SFO and Futures magazine, as well as on Amazon. He has lectured on investing on several cruise lines including Crystal, Celebrity, and Norwegian. In November 2003, he spoke at the Intershow Online Investor’s Expo, on “Successfully Trading Stocks for a Living.” As of September 2016, he has been the ETF Columnist for TASC. Masonson has been researching and investing in the stock market for 60 years. He has invested in mutual funds, stocks, options, futures, ETFs, and commodities. Masonson has read more than 625 books on investing and trading, and he is proficient in technical analysis. He has used many investing and trading software programs over the years, including Telescan, OmniTrader, DTN, TradeStation, ULTRA, VectorVest, High Growth Stock Investing, TheWizard, and ETFReplay.com, as well as many brokerage charting programs including Fidelity Active Trader, Think or Swim, Interactive Brokers Trader Workstation, and Schwab’s StreetSmart Edge. He has been interviewed on business radio stations, as well as on cable TV on the Financial News Network and CNBC. The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Institutional Investor, Bottom Line/Business, Inc., Las Vegas Review-Journal, and Advertising Age have interviewed him. His latest book Buy DON’T Hold: Investing with ETFs Using Relative Strength to Increase Returns with Less Risk was published in May 2010. He has previously authored the following books: All About Market Timing: The Easy Way to Get Started, (McGraw-Hill, November 2003 and translated into Chinese in February 2010) as well as the Second Edition published in April 2011, Day Trading On The Edge: A Look-Before-You-Leap Guide to Extreme Investing, (AMACOM, 2000), Cash Cash Cash: The Three Principles of Business Survival and Success, (Harper Business, 1990), Corporate Cash Management: Techniques and Analysis, (Dow-Jones Irwin, 1985. Co-edited with Frank Fabozzi), and the Corporate Treasury Management Manual (A.S. Pratt & Sons, 1998. Editor and Contributor). In April 2011, his first ebook was published with the title Profiting from ETF Rotation Strategies in Turbulent Markets. Masonson received a BBA in Finance and Investments from The City College of New York and an MBA in Operations Research from Bernard M. Baruch College. His master’s thesis title was “Statistical Evaluation of the Relative Strength Concept of Common Stock Selection.”

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