NASDAQ Closes at 8004.07 -3.92 % for week
Market Performance
The three major market averages had one of their worst weekly performances this year in this past week. The NASDAQ Composite fell 3.92%, the S&P 500 Index closed down 3.10% to 2932.05, and the DJIA declined 2.60% closing at 26,485.01. The BDH Dashboard remains on a NEUTRAL “2” reading.
For the: YTD
NASDAQ 20.63%
DJIA 13.54%
S&P 500 16.96%
BDH Strategy 2.29%
Other Market Segments
Not surprising, GLD was up 1.68%, rising 8 of the past 10 weeks. Likewise, GDX had another positive week up 1.80%. Also, oil prices fell this week with USO losing 1.46%, and $Brent down 2.34%
Not unexpectedly, on the fixed income side, TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) advanced a huge 4.04% making up all of the losses for the three weeks prior. Similarly, IEF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF) gained 1.74.
Market Internals Improve
The percentage of the NYSE stocks are above their 200-dma declined again to 58.16% from to 64.06% last week. More importantly, the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas also declined to 48.1% from 66.41% the prior week. Thus, the market has weakened during the past two weeks.
Surprisingly, the number of new 52-week NYSE new highs increased to 603 from 495 the prior week resulting from the market action on Monday when many stocks made yearly highs, but then gave back some of the gain the rest of the week. And the number of new lows increased to 250 from 163 the prior week.
Dashboard Indicator Review – No Change
Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator finally broke above its 100-dma on July 17, but is now only 77 points away from piercing this moving average to the downside. See the above chart right side and notice the red line which is the 100-dma.
Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator issued a slow MACD SELL signal (upper one) on June 7, 2019 while the faster MACD (lower one) also had a SELL signal 4 days earlier. Please refer to upper chart to review these signals.
Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest July 31, 2019 Bullish Percentage reading was 38.49% up 6.73 percentage points from the previous week. This indicator remains on its BUY signal of November 29, 2018.
Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator finally had a BUY signal on June 14 thereby cancelling its April 23 SELL signal (See chart below:
Dark Liquidity
The link is as follows:
www.dark-liquidity.com/index.php/strategies
You can go to www.dark-liquidity.com first and then hit strategies. Our strategy is
14th best out of 23.
BDH Decision Page – BDH Dashboard ETFs
Copy and paste the DecisionPage link into your browser:
On ETFscreen.com, the Decision Page indicated that 10 ETFs out of 44 have “pass” ratings compared to 29 the prior week. There were 34 “fails”. This represents a big drop from the prior weeks. Note that only 3 ETFs in the Top 10 have pass ratings, and that all of our ETFs (PDP, XLP, XHB, QQQ, and XLY) have fail ratings.
You can easily check the top performers for the past 5-days and one month by going to the “Additional Fund Stats” tab on the right side of the BDH Decision Page, and arraying the Rtn-5d and Rtn-3mo column, respectively heading from high to low. If you check the performance over the past five days by hitting the down carat you will note that the three short ETFs are high in the ranking – numbers 1, 3 and 4 – and all with “pass” ratings. That is to be expected in a market down week.
Chart of All BDH Signals
Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals, paste it in your browser. It may take a day or two to update as that is done by a subscriber.
Top 5 ETFs – 100% Invested – PDP, XLY, XHB, XLP, QQQ
As you will note on the Top 5 ETF Tracking table
provided in the attachment (only provided to subscribers), the current ETF
performance is provided since their purchase on the June 11 open. With last week’s decline our portfolio is in
the red
by 0.74%. compared
to the market averages return of 1.15%. Also, all these
five ETFs have a fail rating. Therefore,
I tightened the stops to limit the losses in case the market has further
declines. These are shown on the last
column of the table. You should check your stop percentages and act
accordingly.
Game Plan Going Forward
Although the market is still very near all-time highs and the intermediate and long-term trend is positive, the short-term trend is now down until it reverses higher. So, what do we do here? We watch the portfolio and wait. Make sure your stops are in place to protect principal. Your stops may be different than mine which is the way it should be. We are in a weak period through September, so we may have a much deeper decline or just bounce around in a trading range until the expected surge higher in the 4th quarter, if history is any guide.
Interim updates are sent to subscribers during the week, as needed. Any subscriber who has recently sent in a payment and has not received this regular blog today should email me at lesmasonson@yahoo.com so I can check my records and correct any oversight.
Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them. This website was developed for educational purposes only and is not responsible for any actions you take with your investments. If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are 100% responsible for your investment outcome. Make sure to check the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile like now. Just bookmark the charts above and look for any signal changes. I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active, so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your own risk profile.
